Proliferation News: 21 September 2004Carnegie Endowment for International PeaceFor past stories and further proliferation resources, visit:www.ProliferationNews.orgWe Are Losing the War In Iraq(Joseph Cirincione, Carnegie Analysis)http://www.carnegieendowment.org/npp/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=15845Tuesday, September 21Every major military indicator shows the war in Iraq is going badly. The United States is losing ground, losing hearts and minds, and losing the war. Three U.S. soldiers have been killed in Iraq on average every day in September, up from August, which was up from July. Major cities are now considered too unsafe for U.S. forces to enter, including Fallujah, Samarra, Ramadi and other cities in Iraq’s Sunni regions. The Shia populated urban areas are not—for the moment—in open revolt, but it is difficult to find large cities outside the Kurdish regions where U.S. forces have effective control, including large sections of Baghdad. Time magazine reported this week that insurgents loyal to Abu Mousab al-Zarqawi, the most wanted terrorist in Iraq, are patrolling one of Baghdad’s major thoroughfares—within mortar range of the U.S. embassy. Washington officials insist Iraqi elections will take place as planned in January 2005, but officials in Baghdad are more pessimistic. "We are in deep trouble in Iraq," warned Senator Chuck Hagel last Sunday. Staying Focused on Real Nuclear Threats(Jon Wolfsthal, Munhwa Ilbo)http://www.munhwa.com/opinion/200409/21/20040921010130321110010.htmlTuesday, September 21Revelations that South Korean scientists produced small amounts of enriched uranium in 2000 and plutonium in the early 1980s has distracted the United States and the rest of the world from the real nuclear dangers in East Asia and elsewhere. North Korea’s nuclear weapons program continues to advance, and may now have produced enough plutonium to make 8-9 nuclear weapons. In contrast, from what is known about South Korea’s now disclosed activities, Seoul produced less than 40 times less than would be needed for even a single nuclear weapon.Annan Faults Both Sides of Terror War for Eroding Rule of Law(Colum Lynch, Washington Post)http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A36907-2004Sep20.htmlTuesday, September 21U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan will tell the 191-member U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday that the rule of law in the post-Sept. 11 world has been eroded both by the United States and by other nations as they battle terrorism, and by Islamic extremists and their horrific acts of violence, according to senior U.N. officials. The U.N. chief's remarks will be delivered less than an hour before President Bush addresses the international body, and will come just days after Annan said publicly he considers the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq illegal. But Annan's top aides insisted that he is not seeking to rehash the dispute over the war's legitimacy. "Stirring things up is not his stock in trade," said a senior U.N. official who briefed reporters on Annan's speech. "He is much more concerned about the future of Iraq." Who'd Make U.S. Safer?(Jack Torry, Columbus Dispatch)http://www.columbusdispatch.com/election/election-president.php?story=dispatch/2004/09/19/20040919-C1-01.htmlSunday, September 19They have much in common: sons of the well-connected, students at privileged private schools, graduates of elite Yale University, members of ultra-secret Skull and Bones. Yet President Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry, D-Mass., two ambitious baby boomers with a shared heritage, see the world in wholly different ways. They are engaging in a spirited and divisive foreign-policy debate, perhaps unmatched in ferocity since the bitter disputes a century ago between advocates of American expansion and their anti-imperialist opponents. Bush Unfazed as Absence of WMDs Confirmed(Paul Koring, Globe and Mail)http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040918.wbush18/BNStory/International/Saturday, September 18U.S. President George W. Bush remains committed to his controversial pre-emptive first-strike doctrine despite the complete — and now confirmed — failure by U.S. experts to unearth any Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.Only hours after a draft final report detailing the failure to find Iraq's alleged arsenals of germ, chemical and nuclear-warfare programs began circulating in Washington yesterday, the President said he would have waged war to oust Saddam Hussein even if he had known Iraq had no banned weapons.Nominee Says Iraq Threat Was Perhaps Overstated(Douglas Jehl, New York Times)http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/21/politics/21goss.htmlTuesday, September 21Representative Porter J. Goss, the nominee to become director of central intelligence, said on Monday that some prewar statements by senior Bush administration officials might well have overstated available intelligence about the threat posed by Iraq. Under sharp questioning from a Senate Democrat, Mr. Goss, a Republican from Florida, said he agreed that statements by Vice President Dick Cheney and Condoleezza Rice that linked Iraq to the Sept. 11 attacks; to Al Qaeda; and to an active nuclear weapons program appeared to have gone beyond what was spelled out in intelligence reports at the time.Mr. Goss's concession could fuel Democratic criticisms that Mr. Bush and his advisers overstated the threat posed by Iraq before the war. Democrats failed this year to persuade Republicans to include conclusions related to the administration's use of intelligence in the Senate Intelligence Committee report on Iraq that was completed in July.Seoul Committed to Nuclear-Free Policy(Park Song-wu, Korea Times) http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/200409/kt2004091915474010160.htmSunday, September 19South Korea reassured the world of its commitment to staying nuclear-free as a five-member inspection team from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) arrived in Seoul Sunday to look into the country's controversial nuclear experiments. The Vienna-based U.N. nuclear watchdog rounded up its five-day board of governors' meeting on Friday with a decision to review Seoul's atomic tests in its next regular session, which begins Nov. 25. In a rare news conference jointly held Saturday by three ministers, including Unification Minister Chung Dong-young, Seoul announced a four-point statement reassuring the international community of its commitment to a nuclear-free policy on the Korean peninsula. In Stricter Study, U.S. Scales Back Claim on Cuba Arms (Steven R. Weisman, New York Times)http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/18/international/americas/18intel.htmlSaturday, September 18The Bush administration, using stringent standards adopted after the failure to find banned weapons in Iraq, has conducted a new assessment of Cuba's biological weapons capacity and concluded that it is no longer clear that Cuba has an active, offensive bio-weapons program, according to administration officials.The latest assessment contradicts a 1999 National Intelligence Estimate and past statements by top administration officials, some of whom have warned that Cuba may be sharing its weapons capacity with "rogue states" or with terrorists._____________________________Carnegie News:Former Director of Operational Test and Evaluation, Phil Coyle of the Center for Defense Information, (Ret.) General Eugene Habiger, Former Commander-in-Chief of Strategic Command, and Carnegie Director for Non-Proliferation Joseph Cirincione discussed missile defense at Carnegie on September 20, 2004. Click to access streaming audio of this event. _____________________________ To subscribe or unsubscribe from any one of Carnegie's newsletters, go to www.ceip.org/signup
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